Bidenism 1.0 has failed
Institutionalism requires functioning institutions
What is “Bidenism 1.0”?
As a part of running on “competence” and “respect for experts”, Biden’s first year has been marked by a strong and sustained deference to government organizations, as well as leaders from the “broad state” such as nonprofits and the mainstream media. How’s this working out for him?
Biden’s bet on our institutions has not paid off
Let us count the ways:
Accidentally Afghanistan. My personal theory is that the generals were BS-ing the rest of the executive branch, promising that the Afghan army would hold out for months, allowing an orderly evacuation. Another possibility is that State dropped the ball. Either way, the result was “suboptimal”.
COVID, COVID, COVID. Try to get around the paywall and read this great piece by Kiran Stacey in the FT. TL;DR: we eliminated the Trump variable from the equation and our public health institutions continued to blow it. And that’s not even getting into the weird racial stuff and deeper problems with communication.1
Media gonna Media. Want to discuss moderate tax increases on the wealthy as a part of the BBB negotiations? Tough, you get vaporous negative headlines hyperventilating about declining poll numbers. Want to shepherd your flock away from constant COVID neuroticism? Tough, COVID panic sells. And just wait until the post-Trump media profit slump really sinks in.
Our Republican Friends. Now, the fact that Biden (or anyone) was surprised that the GOP normalized the January 6 putsch is bizarre, a clear demonstration that wealth and privilege rot your brain. But that doesn’t absolve the pondscum in the GOP of their betrayal of their Oaths of Office. And deeper than that are all the “reasonable cowards” in GOP-adjacent organizations and red-leaning communities who are failing as Americans by refusing to stand up to their internal rot.
Teachers unions. Literally the only big swath of unionized labor that people in this country were really positive on. Less willing to risk COVID to teach kids than burger-flippers, clothing-sellers, and people who work out in gyms or drink in bars. Apparently, there is some level of disappointment with these folks, who happen to be a core Democratic constituency.
The Democratic policy apparatus. A great example is the child care program proposed for BBB. It’s a Rube Goldberg machine of tax credits, Federal/State cost splits, and regulations. Who knows, it could be great. But my non-policybrain understanding is that it’s likely to not work well. Again, I am sadly lacking a policybrain, but wouldn’t efforts to subsidize wages and insurance for childcare providers, possibly combined with programs to facilitate market entry of providers (free training, people to help with paperwork…) — efforts at cost control and market efficiency — help make child care affordable without turning it into an Obamacare clusterfuck? For whatever reason, the Democratic policy apparatus seems incapable of this kind of approach, let alone explaining to plebs like me what the various options might be and why their chosen approach is good.
Left-wing “activist” groups, academics, and nonprofits. “Defund the Police”. ‘Nuff said. But I’ll say it anyway: the bizarre lurch towards puritanism instead of policy among the “philanthropic” and “academic” classes is creating a source of persistent pain for practical politicians like Biden. Having the folks who are supposed to guide and rally the troops collectively convince themselves that jumping off a political cliff is a moral imperative is, again, “suboptimal”.
Democrats themselves. Especially when it comes to moving away from an implicit insistence on “Covid Zero” and towards reestablishing normalcy, which is so important for their political fortunes. But they just can’t get over it. And this emotionally-driven stubbornness infects their whole political culture. It’s a party of people failing the “have a beer with” test, and insisting it’s everyone else’s fault. (Yes, I’m considering common people themselves as an “institution”. They are.)
There’s probably more I’m not thinking of. Business elites? Should the Fed have raised rates sooner?
And all this is on top of the general failing nature of our society: a professional-elite stratum that can’t tear itself away from cannibalizing the society that supports it, a middle class that can’t get off the couch to save itself, a Democratic party that can’t figure out that politics is a 50-state, 24/7 business, a broad political culture of subliterates (on both sides) substituting partisan memes and narcissistic groupthink for meaningful engagement, institutions stuffed with geriatrics and mediocre nepotistic legacies, and on, and on, and on…
Towards Bidenism 2.0
Stop. Being. Nice.
Biden’s “malaise” is largely a symptom COVID, which is outside his control. Larry Summers might have been right that ARP was too big, and I’m not convinced that Biden’s team is handling COVID as well as it could2, but the big issues dragging him down are not things he has a lot of control over.
More generally, when the Biden team is focused on something, it seems to do OK. The vaccine rollout was only hampered by Republicans failing to put country above party3, AUKUS/Quad and the handling of Ukraine seem to be going well, and I’m interested in how his efforts to use the regulatory apparatus to decrease profit-taking and fight inflation4 will work out.
I read somewhere that Biden’s folks are running policy efforts in two-month “sprints” (I guess that’s a sprint for the government) and that’s not a bad approach. Biden is smart in understanding that the political cycle and the media cycle are profoundly divergent. Focusing on fixing shit before the election, and worrying less about the freakout du jour is obviously wise.
But sometimes that leaves him “behind the ball”. More responsiveness from his cabinet, more accountability from their reports, more multitasking: this is needed to keep from getting blindsided. But yes, this needs to be balanced with work on medium-term strategic objectives.
As for the tactics: Stop. Being. Nice. Not all the time, not to everyone. But shouting at someone other than rando right-memers at townhalls and Joe Manchin would be good. Instead, try folks from the list above. Explain forcefully why things are problematic. Explain in private, if necessary.
For problems with media coverage, for problems with the Democratic internal culture, explain in public. Lead. Guide people. That means telling people they’re wrong. It’s not nice, but it’s necessary. Just try to be funny while you do it.
I intend to write a post about the these people’s whole communication thing. For now, just consider that when you justify your salary on being smarter than others, your belief in the usefulness of explaining things to them, as opposed to just telling them what to do, goes way down.
Another reminder-to-self of a future topic…
…and a reminder to do a really nasty piece on this feat of moral excellence by our Republican friends.
I could’ve sworn I wrote a piece on this before buzzing off for a while… crap